Equity portfolio management with cardinality constraints and risk parity control using multi-objective particle swarm optimization

The financial crisis and the market uncertainty of the last years have pointed out the shortcomings of traditional portfolio theory to adequately manage the different sources of risk of the investment process. This paper addresses the issue by developing an alternative portfolio design, that integrates risk parity into the cardinality constrained portfolio optimization model. The resulting mixed integer programming problem is handled by an improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm. Three hybrid approaches, based on a repair mechanism and different versions of the constrained-domination principle, are proposed to handle constraints. The efficiency of the algorithm and the effectiveness of the solution approaches are assessed through a set of numerical examples. Moreover, the benefits of adopting the proposed strategy instead of the cardinality constrained mean-variance approach are validated in an out-of-sample experiment

Portfolio Management Using Artificial Trading Systems Based on Technical Analysis

Evolutionary algorithms consist of several heuristics able to solve optimization tasks by imitating some aspects of natural evolution. In the \ufb01eld of computational \ufb01nance, this type of procedures, combined with neural networks, swarm intelligence, fuzzy systems and machine learning has been successfully applied to a variety of problems, such as the prediction of stock price movements and the optimal allocation of funds in a portfolio. Nowadays, there is an increasing interest among computer scientists to solve these issues concurrently by de\ufb01ning automatic trading strategies based on arti\ufb01cial expert systems, technical analysis and fundamental and economic information. The objective is to develop procedures able, from one hand, to mimic the practitioners behavior and, from the other, to beat the market. In this sense, Fernandez-Rodr\uedguez et al. (2005) investigate the pro\ufb01tability of the generalized moving average trading rule for the General Index of Madrid Stock Market by optimizing parameter values with a genetic algorithm. They conclude that the optimized trading rules are superior to a risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy if the transaction costs are reasonable. Similarly, Papadamou & Stephanides (2007) present the GATradeTool, a parameter optimization tool based on genetic algorithms for technical trading rules. In the description of this software, they compare it with other commonly used, non-adaptive tools in terms of stability of the returns and computational costs. Results of the tests on the historical data of a UBS fund show that GATradeTool outperforms the other tools. Fern\ue1ndez-Blanco et al. (2008) propose to use the moving average convergence divergence technical indicator to predict stock indices by optimizing its parameters with a genetic algorithm. Experimental results for the Dow Jones Industrial Average index con\ufb01rm the capability of evolutionary algorithms to improve technical indicators with respect to the classical con\ufb01gurations adopted by practitioners. An alternative approach to generate technical trading systems for stock timing that combines machine learning paradigms and a variable length string multi-objective genetic algorithm is proposed in Kaucic (2010). The most informative technical indicators are selected by the genetic algorithm and combined into a unique trading signal by a learning method. A static single-position automated day trading strategy between the S&P 500 Composite Index and the 3-months Treasury Bill is analyzed in three market phases, up-trend, down-trend and sideways-movements, covering the period 2000-2006. The results indicate that the near-optimal set of rules varies among market phases but presents stable results and is able to reduce or eliminate losses in down-trend periods. As a natural consequence of these studies, evolutionary algorithms may constitute a promising tool also for portfolio strategies involving more than two stocks. In the \ufb01eld of portfolio selection, Markowitz and Sharpe models are frequently used as a task for genetic algorithm optimization. For instance, the problem of \ufb01nding the ef\ufb01cient frontier associated with the standard mean-variance portfolio is tackled by Chang et al. (2000). They extend the standard model to include cardinality and composition constraints by applying three heuristic algorithms based upon genetic algorithms, tabu search and simulated annealing. Computational results are presented for \ufb01ve data sets involving up to 225 assets. Wilding (2003) proposes a hybrid procedure for portfolio management based on factor models, allowing constraints on the number of trades and securities. A genetic algorithm is responsible for selecting the best subset of securities that appears in the \ufb01nal solution, while a quadratic programming routine determines the utility value for that subset. Experiments show the ability of this approach to generate portfolios highly able to track an index. The \u3b2 12 G genetic portfolio algorithm proposed by Oh et al. (2006) selects stocks based on their market capitalization and optimizes their weights in terms of portfolio \u3b2\u2019s standard deviation. The performance of this procedure depends on market volatility and tends to register outstanding performance for short-term applications. The approach I consider for portfolio management is quite different from the previous models and is based on technical analysis. In general, portfolio optimizations using technical analysis are modular procedures where a module employs a set of rules based on technical indicators in order to classify the assets in the market, while another module concentrates on generating and managing portfolio over time (for a detailed presentation of the subject, the interested reader may refer to Jasemi et al. (2011)). An interesting application in this context is the approach developed by Korczak & Lipinski (2003) that leads to the optimization of portfolio structures by making use of arti\ufb01cial trading experts, previously discovered by a genetic algorithm (see Korczak & Roger (2002)), and evolutionary strategies. The approach has been tested using data from the Paris Stock Exchange. The pro\ufb01ts obtained by this algorithm are higher than those of the buy-and-hold strategy. Recently, Ghandar et al. (2009) describe a two-modules interacting procedure where a genetic algorithm optimizes a set of fuzzy technical trading rules according to market conditions and interacts with a portfolio strategy based on stock ranking and cardinality constraints. They introduce several performance metrics to compare their portfolios with the Australian Stock Exchange index, showing greater returns and lower volatility. An alternative multi-modular approach has been developed by Gorgulho et al. (2011) that aims to manage a \ufb01nancial portfolio by using technical analysis indicators optimized by a genetic algorithm. In order to validate the solutions, authors compare the designed strategy against the market itself, the buy-and-hold and a purely random strategy, under distinct market conditions. The results are promising since the approach outperforms the competitors. As the previous examples demonstrate, the technical module occupies, in general, a subordinate position relative to the management component. Since transaction costs, cardinality and composition constraints are of primary importance for the rebalancing purpose, the effective impact of technical signals in the development of optimal portfolios is not clear. To highlight the bene\ufb01ts of using technical analysis in portfolio management, I propose an alternative genetic optimization heuristic, based on an equally weighted zero investment strategy, where funds are equally divided among the stocks of a long portfolio and the stocks of a short one. Doing so, the trading signals directly in\ufb02uence the portfolio construction. Moreover, I implement three types of portfolio generation models according to the risk-adjusted measure considered as the objective, in order to study the relation between portfolio risk and market condition changes. The remainder of the chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 explains in detail the proposed method, focusing on the investment strategy, the de\ufb01nitions of the technical indicators and the evolutionary learning algorithm adopted. Section 3 presents the experimental results and discussions. Finally, Section 4 concludes the chapter with some remarks and ideas for future improvements

Group Risk Parity Strategies for ETFs Portfolios

This research aims to compare different strategies that a non-professional investor in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could employ to reach a good performance both from profits and from a risk perspective. In recent years, especially after the 2008 crisis, a new technique to evaluate the risk has become more popular, the so-called risk parity, which seeks to equalise the contributions to risk of the portfolio constituents. Our study analyses 17 variants of risk parity portfolio design for groups with the minimum variance strategy and equally weighted portfolio over a pool of 56 ETFs\u2014listed on the Italian Stock Exchange\u2014of eight different categories of specialisation. Empirical results confirm the usefulness of the group risk parity strategies in improving outcomes regarding diversification of risks among classes with good out-of-sample performance with respects to the target models

Multi-Objective Stochastic Optimization Programs for a non-Life Insurance Company under Solvency Constraints

In the paper, we introduce a multi-objective scenario-based optimization approach for chance-constrained portfolio selection problems. More specifically, a modified version of the normal constraint method is implemented with a global solver in order to generate a dotted approximation of the Pareto frontier for bi- and tri-objective programming problems. Numerical experiments are carried out on a set of portfolios to be optimized for an EU-based non-life insurance company. Both performance indicators and risk measures are managed as objectives. Results show that this procedure is effective and readily applicable to achieve suitable risk-reward tradeoff analysis

Interval-valued upside potential and downside risk portfolio optimisation

A novel interval optimisation approach is developed to include imprecise forecasts into the portfolio selection process for investors measuring upside potential and downside risk as deviations from a target return. Crisp scenarios are substituted by interval scenarios and the resulting interval optimisation problem is solved in a tractable manner by means of a bi-objective formulation exploiting a partial order relation between intervals. Four utility case studies involving assets from the F.T.S.E. M.I.B. Index are considered to illustrate how impreciseness can be efficiently handled in portfolio management

Evolutionary computation for trading systems

2007/2008Evolutionary computations, also called evolutionary algorithms, consist of several heuristics, which are able to solve optimization tasks by imitating some aspects of natural evolution. They may use different levels of abstraction, but they are always working on populations of possible solutions for a given task. The basic idea is that if only those individuals of a population which meet a certain selection criteria reproduce, while the remaining individuals die, the population will converge to those individuals that best meet the selection criteria. If imperfect reproduction is added the population can begin to explore the search space and will move to individuals that have an increased selection probability and that hand down this property to their descendants. These population dynamics follow the basic rule of the Darwinian evolution theory, which can be described in short as the “survival of the fittest”. Although evolutionary computations belong to a relative new research area, from a computational perspective they have already showed some promising features such as: • evolutionary methods reveal a remarkable balance between efficiency and efficacy; • evolutionary computations are well suited for parameter optimisation; • this type of algorithms allows a wide variety of extensions and constraints that cannot be provided in traditional methods; • evolutionary methods are easily combined with other optimization techniques and can also be extended to multi-objective optimization. From an economic perspective, these methods appear to be particularly well suited for a wide range of possible financial applications, in particular in this thesis I study evolutionary algorithms • for time series prediction; • to generate trading rules; • for portfolio selection. It is commonly believed that asset prices are not random, but are permeated by complex interrelations that often translate in assets mispricing and may give rise to potentially profitable opportunities. Classical financial approaches, such as dividend discount models or even capital asset pricing theories, are not able to capture these market complexities. Thus, in the last decades, researchers have employed intensive econometric and statistical modeling that examine the effects of a multitude of variables, such as price- earnings ratios, dividend yields, interest rate spreads and changes in foreign exchange rates, on a broad and variegated range of stocks at the same time. However, these models often result in complex functional forms difficult to manage or interpret and, in the worst case, are solely able to fit a given time series but are useless to predict it. Parallelly to quantitative approaches, other researchers have focused on the impact of investor psychology (in particular, herding and overreaction) and on the consequences of considering informed signals from management and analysts, such as share repurchases and analyst recommendations. These theories are guided by intuition and experience, and thus are difficult to be translated into a mathematical environment. Hence, the necessity to combine together these point of views in order to develop models that examine simultaneously hundreds of variables, including qualitative informations, and that have user friendly representations, is urged. To this end, the thesis focuses on the study of methodologies that satisfy these requirements by integrating economic insights, derived from academic and professional knowledge, and evolutionary computations. The main task of this work is to provide efficient algorithms based on the evolutionary paradigm of biological systems in order to compute optimal trading strategies for various profit objectives under economic and statistical constraints. The motivations for constructing such optimal strategies are: i) the necessity to overcome data-snooping and supervisorship bias in order to learn to predict good trading opportunities by using market and/or technical indicators as features on which to base the forecasting; ii) the feasibility of using these rules as benchmark for real trading systems; iii) the capability of ranking quantitatively various markets with respect to their profitability according to a given criterion, thus making possible portfolio allocations. More precisely, I present two algorithms that use artificial expert trading systems to predict financial time series, and a procedure to generate integrated neutral strategies for active portfolio management. The first algorithm is an automated procedure that simultaneously selects variables and detect outliers in a dynamic linear model using information criteria as objective functions and diagnostic tests as constraints for the distributional properties of errors. The novelties are the automatic implementation of econometric conditions in the model selection step, making possible a better exploration of the solution space on one hand, and the use of evolutionary computations to efficiently generate a reduction procedure from a very large number of independent variables on the other hand. In the second algorithm, the novelty is given by the definition of evolutionary learning in financial terms and its use in a multi-objective genetic algorithm in order to generate technical trading systems. The last tool is based on a trading strategy on six assets, where future movements of each variable are obtained by an evolutionary procedure that integrates various types of financial variables. The contribution is given by the introduction of a genetic algorithm to optimize trading signals parameters and the way in which different informations are represented and collected. In order to compare the contribution of this work to “classical” techniques and theories, the thesis is divided into three parts. The first part, titled Background, collects Chapters 2 and 3. Its purpose is to provide an introduction to search/optimization evolutionary techniques on one hand, and to the theories that relate the predictability in financial markets with the concept of efficiency proposed over time by scholars on the other hand. More precisely, Chapter 2 introduces the basic concepts and major areas of evolutionary computation. It presents a brief history of three major types of evolutionary algorithms, i.e. evolution strategies, evolutionary programming and genetic algorithms, and points out similarities and differences among them. Moreover it gives an overview of genetic algorithms and describes classical and genetic multi-objective optimization techniques. Chapter 3 first presents an overview of the literature on the predictability of financial time series. In particular, the extent to which the efficiency paradigm is affected by the introduction of new theories, such as behavioral finance, is described in order to justify the market forecasting methodologies developed by practitioners and academics in the last decades. Then, a description of the econometric and financial techniques that will be used in conjunction with evolutionary algorithms in the successive chapters is provided. Special attention is paid to economic implications, in order to highlight merits and shortcomings from a practitioner perspective. The second part of the thesis, titled Trading Systems, is devoted to the description of two procedures I have developed in order to generate artificial trading strategies on the basis of evolutionary algorithms, and it groups Chapters 4 and 5. In particular, chapter 4 presents a genetic algorithm for variable selection by minimizing the error in a multiple regression model. Measures of errors such as ME, RMSE, MAE, Theil’s inequality coefficient and CDC are analyzed choosing models based on AIC, BIC, ICOMP and similar criteria. Two components of penalty functions are taken in analysis- level of significance and Durbin Watson statistics. Asymptotic properties of functions are tested on several financial variables including stocks, bonds, returns, composite prices indices from the US and the EU economies. Variables with outliers that distort the efficiency and consistency of estimators are removed to solve masking and smearing problems that they may cause in estimations. Two examples complete the chapter. In both cases, models are designed to produce short-term forecasts for the excess returns of the MSCI Europe Energy sector on the MSCI Europe index and a recursive estimation- window is used to shed light on their predictability performances. In the first application the data-set is obtained by a reduction procedure from a very large number of leading macro indicators and financial variables stacked at various lags, while in the second the complete set of 1-month lagged variables is considered. Results show a promising capability to predict excess sector returns through the selection, using the proposed methodology, of most valuable predictors. In Chapter 5 the paradigm of evolutionary learning is defined and applied in the context of technical trading rules for stock timing. A new genetic algorithm is developed by integrating statistical learning methods and bootstrap to a multi-objective non dominated sorting algorithm with variable string length, making possible to evaluate statistical and economic criteria at the same time. Subsequently, the chapter discusses a practical case, represented by a simple trading strategy where total funds are invested in either the S&P 500 Composite Index or in 3-month Treasury Bills. In this application, the most informative technical indicators are selected from a set of almost 5000 signals by the algorithm. Successively, these signals are combined into a unique trading signal by a learning method. I test the expert weighting solution obtained by the plurality voting committee, the Bayesian model averaging and Boosting procedures with data from the the S&P 500 Composite Index, in three market phases, up-trend, down- trend and sideways-movements, covering the period 2000–2006. In the third part, titled Portfolio Selection, I explain how portfolio optimization models may be constructed on the basis of evolutionary algorithms and on the signals produced by artificial trading systems. First, market neutral strategies from an economic point of view are introduced, highlighting their risks and benefits and focusing on their quantitative formulation. Then, a description of the GA-Integrated Neutral tool, a MATLAB set of functions based on genetic algorithms for active portfolio management, is given. The algorithm specializes in the parameter optimization of trading signals for an integrated market neutral strategy. The chapter concludes showing an application of the tool as a support to decisions in the Absolute Return Interest Rate Strategies sub-fund of Generali Investments.Gli “algoritmi evolutivi”, noti anche come “evolutionary computations” comprendono varie tecniche di ottimizzazione per la risoluzione di problemi, mediante alcuni aspetti suggeriti dall’evoluzione naturale. Tali metodologie sono accomunate dal fatto che non considerano un’unica soluzione alla volta, bens`ı trattano intere popolazioni di possibili soluzioni per un dato problema. L’idea sottostante `e che, se un algoritmo fa evolvere solamente gli individui di una data popolazione che soddisfano a un certo criterio di selezione, e lascia morire i restanti, la popolazione converger`a agli individui che meglio soddisfano il criterio di selezione. Con una selezione non ottimale, cio`e una che ammette pure soluzioni sub-ottimali, la popolazione rappresenter` a meglio l’intero spazio di ricerca e sar`a in grado di individuare in modo pi`u consistente gli individui migliori da far evolvere. Queste dinamiche interne alle popolazioni seguono i principi Darwiniani dell’evoluzione, che si possono sinteticamente riassumere nella dicitura “la sopravvivenza del più adatto”. Sebbene gli algoritmi evolutivi siano un’area di ricerca relativamente nuova, dal punto di vista computazionale hanno dimostrato alcune caratteristiche interessanti fra cui le seguenti: • permettono un notevole equilibrio tra efficienza ed efficacia; • sono particolarmente indicati per la configurazione dei parametri in problemi di ottimizzazione; • consentono una flessibilit`a nella definizione matematica dei problemi e dei vincoli che non si trova nei metodi tradizionali; • possono facilmente essere integrati con altre tecniche di ottimizzazione ed essere essere modificati per risolvere problemi multi-obiettivo. Dal un punto di vista economico, l’applicazione di queste procedure pu`o risultare utile specialmente in campo finanziario. In particolare, nella mia tesi ho studiato degli algoritmi evolutivi per • la previsione di serie storiche finanziarie; • la costruzione di regole di trading; • la selezione di portafogli. Da un punto di vista pi`u ampio, lo scopo di questa ricerca `e dunque l’analisi dell’evoluzione e della complessit`a dei mercati finanziari. In tal senso, dal momento che i prezzi non seguono andamenti puramente casuali, ma sono governati da un insieme molto articolato di eventi correlati, i modelli e le teorie classiche, come i dividend discount model e le varie capital asset pricing theories, non sono pi`u sufficienti per determinare potenziali opportunit`a di profitto. A tal fine, negli ultimi decenni, alcuni ricercatori hanno sviluppato una vasta gamma di modelli econometrici e statistici in grado di esaminare contemporaneamente le relazioni e gli effetti di centinaia di variabili, come ad esempio, price-earnings ratios, dividendi, differenziali fra tassi di interesse e variazioni dei tassi di cambio, per una vasta gamma di assets. Comunque, questo approccio, che fa largo impiego di strumenti di calcolo, spesso porta a dei modelli troppo complicati per essere gestiti o interpretati, e, nel peggiore dei casi, pur essendo ottimi per descrivere situazioni passate, risultano inutili per fare previsioni. Parallelamente a questi approcci quantitativi, si `e manifestato un grande interesse sulla psicologia degli investitori e sulle conseguenze derivanti dalle opinioni di esperti e analisti nelle dinamiche del mercato. Questi studi sono difficilmente traducibili in modelli matematici e si basano principalmente sull’intuizione e sull’esperienza. Da qui la necessit` a di combinare insieme questi due punti di vista, al fine di sviluppare modelli che siano in grado da una parte di trattare contemporaneamente un elevato numero di variabili in modo efficiente e, dall’altra, di incorporare informazioni e opinioni qualitative. La tesi affronta queste tematiche integrando le conoscenze economiche, sia accademiche che professionali, con gli algoritmi evolutivi. Pi`u pecisamente, il principale obiettivo di questo lavoro `e lo sviluppo di algoritmi efficienti basati sul paradigma dell’evoluzione dei sistemi biologici al fine di determinare strategie di trading ottimali in termini di profitto e di vincoli economici e statistici. Le ragioni che motivano lo studio di tali strategie ottimali sono: i) la necessit`a di risolvere i problemi di data-snooping e supervivorship bias al fine di ottenere regole di investimento vantaggiose utilizzando indicatori di mercato e/o tecnici per la previsione; ii) la possibilità di impiegare queste regole come benchmark per sistemi di trading reali; iii) la capacit`a di individuare gli asset pi`u vantaggiosi in termini di profitto, o di altri criteri, rendendo possibile una migliore allocazione di risorse nei portafogli. In particolare, nella tesi descrivo due algoritmi che impiegano sistemi di trading artificiali per predire serie storiche finanziarie e una procedura di calcolo per strategie integrate neutral market per la gestione attiva di portafogli. Il primo algoritmo `e una procedura automatica che seleziona le variabili e simultaneamente determina gli outlier in un modello dinamico lineare utilizzando criteri informazionali come funzioni obiettivo e test diagnostici come vincoli per le caratteristiche delle distribuzioni degli errori. Le novit`a del metodo sono da una parte l’implementazione automatica di condizioni econometriche nella fase di selezione, consentendo una migliore analisi dello EVOLUTIONARY COMPUTATIONS FOR TRADING SYSTEMS 3 spazio delle soluzioni, e dall’altra parte, l’introduzione di una procedura di riduzione evolutiva capace di riconoscere in modo efficiente le variabili pi`u informative. Nel secondo algoritmo, le novità sono costituite dalla definizione dell’apprendimento evolutivo in termini finanziari e dall’applicazione di un algoritmo genetico multi-obiettivo per la costruzione di sistemi di trading basati su indicatori tecnici. L’ultimo metodo proposto si basa su una strategia di trading su sei assets, in cui le dinamiche future di ciascuna variabile sono ottenute impiegando una procedura evolutiva che integra diverse tipologie di variabili finanziarie. Il contributo è dato dall’impiego di un algoritmo genetico per ottimizzare i parametri negli indicatori tecnici e dal modo in cui le differenti informazioni sono presentate e collegate. La tesi `e organizzata in tre parti. La prima parte, intitolata Background, comprende i Capitoli 2 e 3, ed è intesa a fornire un’introduzione alle tecniche di ricerca/ottimizzazione su base evolutiva da una parte, e alle teorie che si occupano di efficienza e prevedibilit`a dei mercati finanziari dall’altra. Più precisamente, il Capitolo 2 introduce i concetti base e i maggiori campi di studio della computazione evolutiva. In tal senso, si dà una breve presentazione storica di tre dei maggiori tipi di algoritmi evolutivi, ciò e le strategie evolutive, la programmazione evolutiva e gli algoritmi genetici, evidenziandone caratteri comuni e differenze. Il capitolo si chiude con una panoramica sugli algoritmi genetici e sulle tecniche classiche e genetiche di ottimizzazione multi-obiettivo. Il Capitolo 3 affronta nel dettaglio la problematica della prevedibilit`a delle serie storiche finanziarie mettendo in luce, in particolare, quanto il paradigma dell’efficienza sia influenzato dalle pi`u recenti teorie finanziarie, come ad esempio la finanza comportamentale. Lo scopo è quello di dare una giustificazione su basi teoriche per le metodologie di previsione sviluppate nella tesi. Segue una descrizione dei metodi econometrici e di analisi tecnica che nei capitoli successivi verrano impiegati assieme agli algoritmi evolutivi. Una particolare attenzione è data alle implicazioni economiche, al fine di evidenziare i loro meriti e i loro difetti da un punto di vista pratico. La seconda parte, intitolata Trading Systems, raggruppa i Capitoli 4 e 5 ed è dedicata alla descrizione di due procedure che ho sviluppato per generare sistemi di trading artificiali sulla base di algoritmi evolutivi. In particolare, il Capitolo 4 presenta un algortimo genetico per la selezione di variabili attraverso la minimizzazione dell’errore in un modello di regressione multipla. Misure di errore, quali il ME, il RMSE, il MAE, il coefficiente di Theil e il CDC sono analizzate a partire da modelli selezionati sulla scorta di criteri informazionali, come ad esempio AIC, BIC, ICOMP. A livello di vincoli diagnostici, ho considerato una funzione di penalità a due componenti e la statistica di Durbin Watson. Il programma impiega variabili finanziarie di vario tipo, come rendimenti di titoli, bond e prezzi di indici composti ottenuti dalle economie Statunitense ed Europea. Nel caso le serie storiche 4 MASSIMILIANO KAUCIC considerate presentino outliers che distorcono l’efficienza e la consistenza degli stimatori, l’algoritmo `e in grado di individuarle e rimuoverle dalla serie, risolvendo il problema di masking and smearing. Il capitolo si conclude con due applicazioni, in cui i modelli sono progettati per produrre previsioni di breve periodo per l’extra rendimento del settore MSCI Europe Energy sull’indice MSCI Europe e una procedura di tipo recursive estimation-window è utilizzata per evidenziarne le performance previsionali. Nel primo esempio, l’insieme dei dati `e ottenuto estraendo le variabili di interesse da un considerevole numero di indicatori di tipo macro e da variabili finanziarie ritardate rispetto alla variabile dipendente. Nel secondo esempio ho invece considerato l’intero insieme di variabili ritardate di 1 mese. I risultati mostrano una notevole capacità previsiva per l’extra rendimento, individuando gli indicatori maggiormente informativi. Nel Capitolo 5, il concetto di apprendimento evolutivo viene definito ed applicato alla costruzione di regole di trading su indicatori tecnici per lo stock timing. In tal senso, ho sviluppato un algoritmo che integra metodi di apprendimento statistico e di boostrap con un particolare algoritmo multi-obiettivo. La procedura derivante è in grado di valutare contemporaneamente criteri economici e statistici. Per descrivere il suo funzionamento, ho considerato un semplice esempio di trading in cui tutto il capitale è investito in un indice (che nel caso trattato è l’indice S&P 500 Composite) o in un titolo a basso rischio (nell’esempio, i Treasury Bills a 3 mesi). Il segnale finale di trading `e il risultato della selezione degli indicatori tecnici pi`u informativi a partire da un insieme di circa 5000 indicatori e la loro conseguente integrazione mediante un metodo di apprendimento (il plurality voting committee, il bayesian model averaging o il Boosting). L’analisi è stata condotta sull’intervallo temporale dal 2000 al 2006, suddiviso in tre sottoperiodi: il primo rappresenta l’indice in un

The Information Content of Earnings Announcements in the European Insurance Market: An Event Study Analysis

We contribute to the extensive literature on the relationship between earnings announcements and market reactions by investigating the European insurance sector, which presents a wide difference in transparency between quarterly and semi-annual/annual reports. We design an event-study analysis comprising over 900 events in the period 2009-2016, testing if investors react differently to the two subsets of reports. We find that quarterly reports result in signals on stock prices\u2019 limited to few trading days, whereas semi-annual and annual reports produce bigger and more persistent impacts. Instead, we do not find evidence of differences impacting trading volumes. Our results are supportive of the recent EU decision to remove the obligation to publish quarterly reports to avoid short-termism and suggest that costs are greater than benefits for companies considering to adopt voluntary quarterly reports

A multi-start opposition-based particle swarm optimization algorithm with adaptive velocity for bound constrained global optimization

In this paper we present a multi-start particle swarm optimization algorithm for the global optimization of a function subject to bound constraints. The procedure consists of three main steps. In the initialization phase, an opposition learning strategy is performed to improve the search efficiency. Then a variant of the adaptive velocity based on the differential operator enhances the optimization ability of the particles. Finally, a re-initialization strategy based on two diversity measures for the swarm is act in order to avoid premature convergence and stagnation. The strategy uses the super-opposition paradigm to re-initialize particles in the swarm. The algorithm has been evaluated on a set of 100 global optimization test problems. Comparisons with other global optimization methods show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm

Predicting EU Energy Industry Excess Returns on EU Market Index via a Constrained Genetic Algorithm

Genetic algorithm, Penalty function method, Model selection, Excess return, Information criteria, C32, C52, C53, C61, C63,